According to the new data, the 2025 Top 3 growth countries in #LatinAmerica are forecasted to be Argentina 🇦🇷 (5.5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026), Guatemala (4.1% in 2025; 3.8% in 2026) and Panama (4% in both 2025 and 2026). With 4% expected growth, Panama moves from 8th to 3rd position compared to the previous IMF 2025 forecast for Panama (Regional Outlook October 2024). An 1% upward revision and significantly higher growth than the 2.9% in 2024.
Zooming in on the largest Latin America economies: Brazil 🇧🇷 is expected to have growth rates of 2% in 2025 & 2026, down from 3.4% in 2024 and a downward revision of 0.2.% for both years of the previous IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2025). Mexico 🇲🇽 is forecasted with -0.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, a sharp drop compared to the previous IMF forecast with cuts of -1.7% in 2025 and -0.6% in 2026. Mexico’s growth in 2024 was 1.5%.
Colombia’s 🇨🇴 growth is expected to rise from 1.7% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 & 2.6% in 2026.
Latin America & the Caribbean
In Latin America and the Caribbean, economic growth is expected to slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, before picking up again to 2.4% in 2026. A downward revision by 0.5% for 2025 and 0.3% for 2026 compared to the previous WEO Outlook Update (January 2025)
According to the IMF, this downward revision is mainly due to a sharp reduction in Mexico’s growth outlook as mentioned above. It reflects weaker than expected performance in late 2024 and early 2025, combined with the negative effects of U.S. tariffs, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions.
Finally, Inflation (end-of-period) in Latin America and the Caribbean (ex. Venezuela) is expected to decrease from 12.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025 and 4.4 in 2026.
Above is a “sneak preview” of the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere that will be published tomorrow, based on our analysis of the raw data that already became available this week. For more info attend the IMF’s Press Briefing at 1.30 PM ET with Rodrigo Valdés, IMF Director, Western Hemisphere Department.