According to the new data, the 2025 Top 3 growth countries in Latin America are forecasted to be Argentina 🇦🇷 (5.5% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026), Guatemala (4.1% in 2025; 3.8% in 2026) and Panama (4% in both 2025 and 2026). This follows from data from the IMF Regional Economic Outlook that was published at the end of April.
Panama
With 4% expected growth, Panama moves from 8th to 3rd position compared to the previous IMF 2025 forecast for Panama (Regional Outlook October 2024). An 1% upward revision and significantly higher growth than the 2.9% in 2024.
Largest Latin American economies: Brazil & Mexico
Zooming in on the largest Latin America economies: Brazil 🇧🇷 is expected to have growth rates of 2% in 2025 & 2026, down from 3.4% in 2024 and a downward revision of 0.2.% for both years of the previous IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2025). Mexico 🇲🇽 is forecasted with -0.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, a sharp drop compared to the previous IMF forecast with cuts of -1.7% in 2025 and -0.6% in 2026. Mexico’s growth in 2024 amounted to 1.5%.
Colombia’s 🇨🇴 growth is expected to rise from 1.7% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 & 2.6% in 2026.
Growth in Latin America & the Caribbean expected to slow
In Latin America and the Caribbean, economic growth is expected to slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025, before picking up again to 2.4% in 2026. A downward revision by 0.5% for 2025 and 0.3% for 2026 compared to the previous WEO Outlook Update (January 2025). Consumption has been the primary driver of economic activity, while investment continues to lag.
According to the IMF, this downward revision is mainly due to a sharp reduction in Mexico’s growth outlook as mentioned above. It reflects weaker than expected performance in late 2024 and early 2025, combined with the negative effects of U.S. tariffs, increased geopolitical uncertainty, and tighter financial conditions.
Inflation
Inflation (end-of-period) in Latin America and the Caribbean (ex. Venezuela is expected to continue to decline, from 12.1% in 2024 to 5.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. There is however significant uncertainty about the effects of global developments on inflation (tariffs, weakening curencies).
Panama’s end-of-period inflation is forecasted at 0.7% in 2025 & 2% in 2026 (-0.2% in 2024).
Regional Economic Outlook Western Hemisphere April 2025
This article was updated on 2 May 2025.